上能电气：盈利能力显著提升，关注Q4业绩向上弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a focus on upward performance elasticity in Q4 [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.8% [2][3] - The company is a leading player in the centralized photovoltaic storage market, advancing towards a high ROE market [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to product structure adjustments [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was 1.41 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 29.26%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.62 percentage points [2][3] - The company expects net profits of 5.68 billion, 7.93 billion, and 10.07 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 28, 20, and 16 [2][3] Market Demand and Product Strategy - The demand for photovoltaic inverters is steadily growing both domestically and internationally, with the company benefiting from this demand while optimizing its product structure [2] - The company has opened a North American service center and is accelerating its local operations, with a focus on high-margin orders in the U.S. [2] - The company anticipates that the Indian and Middle Eastern markets will begin large-scale tenders for energy storage, which could enhance its market share [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 4.93 billion, 6.84 billion, 9.16 billion, and 11.13 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 110.9%, 38.6%, 33.9%, and 21.6% [3][4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 19.2% in 2023 to 23.5% in 2026 [3][4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 16.3% in 2023 to 25.9% in 2026 [3][4]