CCB(601939) 国联证券·2024-11-05 01:01Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for China Construction Bank (CCB) [4][6] Core Views - CCB's net interest margin (NIM) decline has narrowed, and profit growth has turned positive [1][4] - Revenue growth for 2024Q1-Q3 increased by 0.27pct compared to 2024H1, driven by improved non-interest income [2][6] - Other non-interest income reached 430.61 billion yuan, up 71.50% YoY, with a 15.74pct increase compared to 2024H1 [2][6] - Net profit growth turned positive, with contributions from scale expansion and provision replenishment [6] - Loan balance as of 2024Q3 was 25.70 trillion yuan, up 8.87% YoY, with significant growth in bill financing [6] - NIM for 2024Q1-Q3 was 1.52%, a 2bp decline from 2024H1, with narrowing decline due to improved liability costs [6] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.35%, with NPL balance at 3469.06 billion yuan, up 5.13% YoY [6] - Provision coverage ratio was 237.03%, and core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 14.10% [6] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 5690.22 billion yuan, up 3.30% YoY, with net profit of 2557.76 billion yuan, up 0.13% YoY [6] - Contribution to net profit from interest-earning assets, NIM, other non-interest income, and provisions were +9.71%, -15.61%, +3.33%, and +3.20% respectively [6] - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is 7566/7756/8053 billion yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 1.52% [6] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 3330/3389/3516 billion yuan, with a 3-year CAGR of 1.87% [6] Industry and Valuation - CCB operates in the banking sector, specifically large state-owned banks [4] - Current stock price is 8.08 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 77,516.75 million yuan [4] - EPS for 2024E is 1.30 yuan, with a PE ratio of 5.47 and PB ratio of 0.56 [7]