[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20260315 通胀回升的金融影响推导 | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-15 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 可能的金融影响：第一，随着名义经济的回升，长债利率将向上突破震 荡区间上沿。超长端利率上行已经持续一年，十年期国债利率震荡格局 预计也将向上突破。央行结构性货币政策对非银同业活期调整可能是 今年最后一次利率政策工具，考虑到物价逐渐回升环境，货币政策的 "灵活"大概率指的是方向灵活，"高效"可能意味着不再动用价格型 政策工具。第二，金融市场风偏阶段性下降，实物资产名义回报率上升 将驱动资本追逐实体资产，同时名义经济回升也意味着广谱资产流动 性的收缩，流动性驱动的估值扩张可能会变慢，资产市场可能从流动性 驱动转向盈利驱动，这一过程转换可能金融资产会先经历一轮逆风期。 第三，短期看风偏和油价上涨驱动了美元的避险和交易需求，但长期看 资本流向的底层逻辑依然是安全性驱动，中东动荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequent changes in bank executives since 2025 reflect a deeper logic aimed at promoting high-quality development within the banking sector [2][8]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Zhang Jingke has been officially approved as the new president of Hangzhou Bank as of February 28, 2025, marking a significant leadership change [4]. - The wave of executive changes since 2025 includes major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, with several banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank undergoing leadership transitions [6][7]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, Hangzhou Bank reported total assets of 236.49 billion, an increase of 11.96% year-on-year; total loans of 107.19 billion, up 14.33%; and total deposits of 144.06 billion, rising by 13.20% [5]. - The bank's wealth management subsidiary has over 600 billion in outstanding wealth management products, reflecting a 39% growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, unchanged from the previous year, while the ratios of overdue loans to non-performing loans and overdue loans over 90 days to non-performing loans have decreased by 16.87 and 10.17 percentage points, respectively [5]. Group 3: Underlying Logic of Executive Changes - The banking sector is facing challenges such as rapid financial technology development, intensified market competition, and increasing regulatory requirements, prompting the need for executive changes to facilitate high-quality development [9]. - The shift from a scale-driven to a value-driven model in banking is essential due to adjustments in interest rates and pressures related to deposit migration, necessitating a transformation in profitability and operational logic [9]. - The rapid advancement of financial technology is disrupting traditional banking models, requiring banks to accelerate digital transformation and innovate products and services to meet diverse customer needs [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investment opportunities [2][11] Core Views - The insurance sector has experienced significant adjustments due to pessimistic narratives surrounding AI, geopolitical conflicts, and investor concerns about the investment performance of the insurance sector. However, the valuation has dropped to historically low levels, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investment [2][11] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in interest margins due to marginal improvements in both assets and liabilities, with non-interest income likely to recover as the equity market rebounds [3][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index fell by 2.10%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.28 percentage points. The sector has seen a cumulative decline of over 9% this year, with current valuations indicating significant room for recovery [2][11] - The sector's price-to-earnings value (PEV) is at 0.65x for A-shares and 0.42x for H-shares, indicating potential recovery spaces of 53% and 137% respectively [11] - The long-term core logic of improvement in both assets and liabilities remains unchanged, with expectations for dual recovery in valuation and performance as market sentiment improves [2][11] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector index decreased by 1.75%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.94 percentage points. The sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.27x, indicating a significant mismatch between earnings and valuation [17][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market, which will benefit leading brokerages with strong service capabilities [17][18] - Recommendations include focusing on large brokerages with strong fundamentals and low valuations, as well as those undergoing mergers or restructuring [18][19] Banking Sector - The banking sector index increased by 1.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.20 percentage points. The sector's PB ratio is at 0.52x [20][21] - Expected improvements in both asset and liability sides are anticipated to stabilize interest margins, with a projected decrease in the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 40 basis points in 2025 [20][21] - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with non-performing loans in corporate real estate and non-real estate consumer credit anticipated to stabilize at high levels [22][23] - Recommendations include focusing on high-dividend large banks and those with strong recovery potential in performance [23]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 降准降息预期走弱 ——银行资负跟踪 20260315 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38003646 | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 林虎 | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_ 相关 ...

格隆汇3月15日｜截至2026年3月15日8时，全球金价呈现大幅回落态势，国际、国内市场同步走跌，整 体跌破关键价位，市场避险情绪降温。实物黄金领域，品牌金饰报价小幅回落，周大福、周大生足金零 售价为1557元/克，老凤祥1552元/克；银行投资金条报价同步下调，建行龙鼎金条1135.50元/克，工行 如意金条1140.46元/克。 ...

从"一日售罄"到多只产品募集超40亿元，一度深受投资者诟病的FOF开年以来持续迎来爆发式发行潮，一 举成为今年公募行业最受瞩目的"明星品类"。 从发行热度、渠道格局到行业规模，FOF基金总规模正式突破3000亿元（注：最新规模采用2025年末规模+新 产品发行规模测算），成为行业发展的重要增长极。不仅点燃市场投资热情，更重塑了公募基金FOF领域的竞 争格局。 一日售罄成常态，FOF发行热度持续飙升 3月14日，3只FOF产品同日发布基金合同生效公告，其中中欧盈欣稳健6个月持有FOF在62天内募集了51.25亿 元，富国智安稳健90天持有FOF在16天内募集了10.97亿元，兴全安养稳健养老一年持有FOF在14天内共募集 3.36亿元。亮眼的募集成绩进一步助推市场热度攀升。 近一周以来，FOF市场迎来结募高峰，爆款产品持续涌现。招商智盈优选6个月持有FOF在3月13日宣布募集 34.13亿元，易方达如意盈泽6个月持有FOF单日募集33.83亿元，再现"一日售罄"的火爆场景。 回顾2026年开年以来的市场表现，FOF的热度一路走高，成为今年"一日售罄"基金中数量最多的品类，截至目 前，全市场已有10只FOF实现单 ...

证券之星消息，3月12日南向资金减持1.08亿股建设银行（00939.HK）。近5个交易日中，获南向资金增 持的有4天，累计净增持1306.03万股。近20个交易日中，获南向资金增持的有18天，累计净增持2.6亿 股。截至目前，南向资金持有建设银行（00939.HK）349.35亿股，占公司已发行普通股的14.52%。 中国建设银行股份有限公司是一家商业银行。该银行主营业务分为公司银行业务，包括企业存款、企业 信贷、资产托管、企业年金、贸易融资、国际结算、国际融资和增值服务等；个人银行业务，包括个人 储蓄、贷款、银行卡服务、私人银行服务、外汇买卖和黄金买卖等，以及资金业务。该银行在中国国内 及海外市场开展业务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

2 月资金月报： 受季节因素影响，机构资金流出，散户资金流入较多 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 147,098.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 140,825.95 | 辑：定力和底线思维》2026-03-08 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-22 工》2026-02-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 13 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 市场资金：理财、公募规模稳步增长，北向资金持仓市值增加。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：邓美君 银行板块个股表现与资金流向：1）板块表现：2 月份银行板块录得下跌-0.55%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 0.64 个百分点，在 31 ...

3月14日，现货黄金跌1.13%，报5022.17美元/盎司，本周累计下跌2.90%，整体冲高回落。 券商中国记者注意到，近期金价波动，黄金投资风险随之加大，多家银行迅速跟进调整积存金交易规则。其 中，建设银行、工商银行均表示，在一定条件下，将对本行积存金购买实施限额管理。此外，还有银行更改实 物黄金销售的配送规则。 多家银行主动收紧 根据 建设银行 公告，为进一步做好风险防控，该行已对建行金（含易存金）实施动态交易限额管理。此外， 由于实物贵金属购买量增长较快，自2026年3月3日起客户购买的配送类订单，发货时间将延长至客户下单后10 —15个工作日（节假日不发货）。 这并非近期首家宣布积存金"限购"的商业银行。 1月， 工商银行 率先公告，自2026年2月7日起，在周末以及法定节假日等非上海黄金交易所交易日，该行将对 如意金积存业务进行限额管理，限额类型包括全量或单一客户单日积存/赎回上限、单笔积存或赎回总量上限 等，并进行动态设置，提金则不受影响。 2月底， 浙商银行 公告，如黄金市场出现价格大幅异常波动、市场流动性枯竭、交易承接能力显著下降等情 况，该行将可能对财富金积存业务实行临时闭市。闭市期间，财 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with total new loans growing by 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong loan issuance [6]. - The total new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the same period in 2025, primarily due to robust loan issuance [6]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed strong growth, with short-term loans increasing by 600 billion yuan and medium-to-long-term loans by 890 billion yuan compared to February 2025 [6]. - The report highlights a trend of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits grew by 26.13% year-on-year, indicating a shift in asset allocation from deposits to wealth management products [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector's performance over the last month shows a 2.1% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a 0.2% increase [3]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Several banks are highlighted with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E, all rated as "Buy": - Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH): Price 17.16, EPS 2.91 for 2026E [8] - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH): Price 11.18, EPS 1.94 for 2026E [8] - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH): Price 9.87, EPS 1.74 for 2026E [8] - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ): Price 31.15, EPS 4.76 for 2026E [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH): Price 7.20, EPS 1.03 for 2026E [8]