CR Sanjiu(SZ:000999) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-05 01:11Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Performance meets expectations with steady progress in mergers and acquisitions integration [1] - Sales expense ratio continues to optimize, and net profit margin shows a steady increase [1] - Kunming Pharmaceutical integration is progressing steadily, and the proposed acquisition of Tianjin Tasly is expected to contribute incremental growth [1] - The company's long-term strategic planning is clear, with a focus on innovative traditional Chinese medicine and prescription drugs [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: 19.74 billion CNY, up 6.08% YoY [1] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: 2.96 billion CNY, up 23.19% YoY [1] - 2024 Q3 non-GAAP net profit: 2.75 billion CNY, up 19.48% YoY [1] - 2024E revenue forecast: 26.57 billion CNY, up 7% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company forecast: 3.35 billion CNY, up 17% YoY [1] Profit Margins - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024: 52.68%, up 2.08pp YoY [1] - Net margin for the first three quarters of 2024: 14.99%, up 0.89pp YoY [1] Key Financial Ratios - ROE: 12% for 2024E [1] - P/E: 17.6 for 2024E [1] - P/B: 2.7 for 2024E [1] Strategic Developments - Kunming Pharmaceutical integration is progressing steadily, with increased investment in the Panax notoginseng industry chain [1] - Proposed acquisition of Tianjin Tasly for 6.21 billion CNY, expected to be completed in Q1 2025 [1] - Post-acquisition, the company will focus on innovative traditional Chinese medicine and prescription drugs, while Kunming Pharmaceutical will focus on the elderly health industry [1] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profit Forecasts - 2025E revenue: 29.28 billion CNY, up 10% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company: 3.88 billion CNY, up 16% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue: 32.09 billion CNY, up 10% YoY [1] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent company: 4.46 billion CNY, up 15% YoY [1] Key Financial Ratios Forecasts - ROE: 12% for 2025E and 2026E [1] - P/E: 15.2 for 2025E and 13.3 for 2026E [1] - P/B: 2.3 for 2025E and 2.0 for 2026E [1] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Balance Sheet Highlights - Total assets: 43.08 billion CNY for 2024E [2] - Total liabilities: 15.36 billion CNY for 2024E [2] - Equity attributable to parent company: 22.05 billion CNY for 2024E [2] Cash Flow Highlights - Operating cash flow: 5.87 billion CNY for 2024E [2] - Investment cash flow: -1.05 billion CNY for 2024E [2] - Financing cash flow: -865 million CNY for 2024E [2] Valuation and Ratios - P/E: 21 for 2023A, 18 for 2024E, 15 for 2025E, 13 for 2026E [2] - P/B: 3 for 2023A, 3 for 2024E, 2 for 2025E, 2 for 2026E [2] - EV/EBITDA: 40 for 2023A, 33 for 2024E, 30 for 2025E, 27 for 2026E [2] Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth rate: 7.4% for 2024E, 10.2% for 2025E, 9.6% for 2026E [2] - EBIT growth rate: 16.3% for 2024E, 13.4% for 2025E, 15.3% for 2026E [2] - Net profit growth rate: 17.4% for 2024E, 15.7% for 2025E, 14.9% for 2026E [2] - Gross margin: 53.6% for 2024E, 54.4% for 2025E, 55.4% for 2026E [2] - Net margin: 14.0% for 2024E, 14.7% for 2025E, 15.5% for 2026E [2]