电力行业2024年三季报业绩综述：需求旺盛，水涨火落，盈利趋平向下

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The electricity industry is experiencing strong demand, but profitability is trending downward due to various factors including coal price fluctuations and operational challenges in different segments [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the total electricity consumption in China reached 7.41 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2021 to 2024 [7][8] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 106 hours year-on-year to 2619 hours, reflecting a 3.6% decline [7] 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Thermal Power - Among 47 companies in the thermal power sector, 26 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, while 13 saw a decline [20] - The average price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal decreased by 10.6% year-on-year to 865.52 CNY/ton in the first three quarters of 2024 [22] - The thermal power sector achieved a revenue of 1,036.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 71.3 billion CNY, an increase of 11.5% [23] 2.2 Hydropower - The hydropower sector saw a net profit increase of 26.0% year-on-year, totaling 45.9 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, with a revenue of 132.5 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.8% [32] - The average rainfall was 633.3 mm, 10.5% more than the historical average, contributing to robust hydropower generation [31] 2.3 Renewable Energy - In the renewable energy sector, 10 out of 26 companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, while 11 experienced a decline [2] - The approval of 11 new nuclear power units in 2024 marks the third consecutive year of over 10 new units approved, indicating long-term growth potential [2] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within each sector: - Hydropower: Changjiang Electric Power, Qianyuan Power - Thermal Power: Sheneng Co., Funiu Co. - Nuclear Power: China Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power - Green Energy: Three Gorges Energy, Longyuan Power [3]