2024年三季度教育行业业绩综述：K12扩张中利润率阶段性调整，顺周期职教静待拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The K12 education sector is experiencing a recovery in supply, with significant growth potential compared to pre-regulatory changes. The number of offline non-academic profit-making institutions in the compulsory education stage increased by 13.8% from January to September 2024 [4][9] - K12 education companies reported revenue growth of 20%-40% in the third quarter, with K9 training outpacing high school training due to differences in expansion pace. However, a slowdown in revenue growth is expected in the next quarter [4][20] - The adult and vocational education sectors are under pressure from market conditions, but there is potential for recovery as the economy stabilizes. The focus is on companies with high dividend yields and low valuations [5][94] Summary by Sections K12 Education - The K12 education sector's revenue growth is driven by high enrollment during the summer and fall, with companies like New Oriental and TAL Education showing significant increases in revenue [4][20] - Profitability varies among companies, with New Oriental's profit margin expected to face pressure in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal factors [24][30] - The number of K9 non-academic training institutions is still significantly lower than before the regulatory changes, indicating room for growth [4][9] Adult and Vocational Education - The adult education market is expected to benefit from a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, with private higher education institutions likely to see improved performance [5][50] - The public examination sector is experiencing moderate growth, with an increase in the number of applicants, but competition is intensifying due to the emergence of smaller institutions [68][69] - Companies in vocational education are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to navigate the challenging macroeconomic environment [83][84] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable profit margins and strong market positioning, such as Tianli International and Xueda Education, which are expected to have enrollment growth outpacing capacity expansion [4][90] - In the adult education sector, companies like Action Education and China Oriental Education are highlighted for their potential recovery and high dividend yields [5][94]