钢铁行业深度报告：盈利反弹

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in profitability due to historically low inventory levels in both the circulation and production sides of the steel industry [5][15]. - Steel exports are expected to remain high, with recent trends showing that when the steel export PMI approaches 50, export volumes stay above 8 million tons [18]. - The report highlights that while there is potential for profit recovery, there are also limitations due to rapid capacity recovery and fluctuating profitability based on supply and demand dynamics [20][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Basis for Profit Rebound - Steel inventory at the circulation end has reached a historical low, with the inventory-to-sales ratio also at a record low as of November 1, 2024 [13][14]. - Production and consumption inventories are also at new lows, with major steel companies' inventories at a ten-year low [15]. - The six major steel-consuming industries show inventory growth close to zero, indicating a potential start for a new round of restocking [15]. 2. Profit Rebound Limitations - There has been a rapid recovery in production capacity, with daily pig iron production as of November 1, 2024, exceeding the average from August and September by approximately 90,000 tons, leading to an annualized increase of about 40 million tons [20]. - Profitability is subject to fluctuations based on supply and demand; if demand is high, profits rebound, but excessive supply can lead to profit declines [25]. 3. PB Valuation Potential - The weighted PB (Price-to-Book) ratio for the steel sector is currently at 0.82 times, indicating room for growth as historical bull markets have seen PB ratios exceed 1.50 times [27]. - Comparatively, major steel companies like Baosteel and Hebei Steel have PB ratios of 0.74 and 0.39, respectively, suggesting undervaluation [27][33]. 4. Mid-term Challenges - The report notes that China's steel consumption has peaked, with per capita consumption reaching 900 kg/year in 2020, which is significantly higher than that of developed countries [36]. - External demand from countries like India is insufficient to compensate for the decline in domestic demand, leading to potential profitability pressures in the future [41]. 5. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with better performance such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, as the steel sector may enter a more cautious investment phase after a general rise in stock prices [43].