有色金属行业周报：美就业数据不及预期+选情焦灼，金价或震荡上行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Recommended" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - Recent fluctuations in U.S. employment data have led to concerns about a "soft landing," prompting expectations for continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which supports rising gold prices. The domestic fiscal policy remains positive, awaiting the effects of fiscal measures [1]. - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000 in October, the smallest gain since December 2020, which has raised market concerns about the economic outlook and potential Fed rate cuts. This backdrop has resulted in declines in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, likely leading to further increases in gold prices [1][17]. - The report anticipates that China's fiscal policy will strengthen, particularly in addressing local government debt and stabilizing the real estate market, which could benefit industrial metals like copper and aluminum [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From October 28 to November 1, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index rose by 1.64%. Among sub-sectors, industrial metals increased by 0.3%, while precious metals decreased by 1.62% [8]. 1.1 Market Trends - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with industrial metals showing resilience despite overall market fluctuations [8]. 1.2 Major Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Key industrial metal prices as of November 3, 2024: - LME Copper: $9,539/ton, down 0.26% week-on-week, up 17.65% year-on-year - LME Aluminum: $2,603/ton, down 2.51% week-on-week, up 16.31% year-on-year - SHFE Copper: ¥76,520/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week, up 13.73% year-on-year [11]. - Inventory levels for LME and SHFE metals indicate varying trends, with LME copper inventory at 270,000 tons, down 1.95% week-on-week [14]. 1.3 Key Listed Company Announcements - Notable announcements include 中钨高新 planning to acquire 100% of 柿竹园公司 for ¥5.195 billion and 盛达资源 aiming to acquire 47% of 鸿林矿业 [15]. 2. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. employment data on precious metals, with gold prices reaching historical highs amid geopolitical tensions and election uncertainties [16][17]. 3. Industrial Metals - China's fiscal policy is expected to enhance support for industrial metals, with a focus on achieving a 5% economic growth target for the year. This is anticipated to create demand for metals like copper and aluminum [20]. 3.1 Copper - As of September 2024, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,004,400 tons, with a slight year-on-year increase. The report also notes current inventory levels for copper [21]. 3.2 Aluminum - The report states that as of November 1, 2024, the SHFE aluminum continuous contract price was ¥20,800/ton, with a capacity utilization rate of 96.03% for electrolytic aluminum [25].