Air China(601111) 国海证券·2024-11-05 02:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (China National Airlines) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 128.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.06% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.31% to 4.144 billion yuan [2][4] - The report highlights a strong recovery in regional and international flight capacity, reaching over 90% of the levels seen in 2019, although revenue performance remains weak [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's total ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) grew by 12.48% year-on-year, with domestic ASK slightly declining by 0.24% and regional/international ASK increasing by 61.27% [3] - The total RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) increased by 20.74% year-on-year, with domestic RPK growing by 8.12% and regional/international RPK by 71.06% [3] - The overall passenger load factor reached 80.98%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points year-on-year, although it remains 1.15 percentage points lower than in 2019 [3] Cost and Profitability - The operating cost for Q3 2024 was 42.277 billion yuan, up 10.82% year-on-year, but the unit cost per ASK decreased by 1.47% to 0.439 yuan per seat kilometer [4] - The company's gross profit margin was reported at 13.06%, down 3.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a significant reduction in operating costs due to a decline in oil prices, with domestic aviation kerosene prices dropping by 13.3% in October 2024 compared to the average price in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 166.79 billion yuan, 177.55 billion yuan, and 186.33 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.88 billion yuan, 7.67 billion yuan, and 11.94 billion yuan [6][7]