美联储系列十二：预计美联储降息25BP，关注市场风险

Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in November 2024, aligning with market expectations to reduce divergence[21] - The October non-farm payroll report showed only a 12,000 increase, influenced by hurricanes, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut[21] - The Canadian central bank raised its rate cut to 50 basis points in October, indicating a rising demand for liquidity in financial markets[21] Market Risks - The lack of further easing from the Federal Reserve in November may pose risks to financial markets[3] - Increased volatility is anticipated in the dollar and euro, with a bullish outlook on volatility indices (VIX) and a bearish outlook on the euro[3] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is expected to flatten, reflecting market adjustments to potential faster rate cuts in the future[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.8%, slightly down from 3.0% in Q2, indicating a cooling economy[16] - The core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, exceeding expectations, while the October non-farm employment numbers were revised down by 112,000[16] - The service sector PMI rose to 54.9, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5, highlighting a divergence in economic performance[16] Liquidity Conditions - The ONRRP balance has decreased to $627 billion, indicating tightening liquidity conditions[12] - Credit expansion in the U.S. has slowed significantly, dropping from nearly 10% to around 2.5% by the end of 2023[12] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to further increase liquidity risks in the market[12] Inflation Trends - The September CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with core CPI remaining stable above 3%[19] - Housing costs continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, despite some stabilization in rental prices[19] - Energy prices have shown volatility, with transportation costs rising to 8.5%, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures[19]