ZBOM(603801) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-05 02:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][12]. Core Views - The company experienced a double-digit decline in revenue in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 1.46 billion (-10.1%) and a net profit of 120 million (-30.9%) [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to pressures in the real estate sector, reduced customer traffic, and consumption downgrade [1]. - Retail operations are under short-term pressure, while overseas business is growing rapidly, with overseas revenue increasing by 35.2% to 130 million [1]. - The company is focusing on developing products for senior apartments and high-end engineering projects, leading to a stable growth in bulk business [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 37.0% (-3.6 percentage points), primarily due to a drop in terminal prices and a high base from the previous year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.68 billion (-6.5%) and a net profit of 270 million (-23.8%) [1]. - The company’s revenue from direct sales and distribution was 250 million (-16.3%) and 1.92 billion (-11.8%) respectively [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin were reported at 37.0% and 8.0% respectively, indicating a temporary pressure on profitability [1]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 470 million, 530 million, and 590 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -20%, +11%, and +12% respectively [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.09, 1.21, and 1.36 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [1][2]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 6.29 billion, with a closing price of 14.40 yuan [3]. Market Trends - The company is actively exploring retail models in Southeast Asia, with stores established in countries such as Cambodia, the Philippines, and Malaysia since the opening of its first store in Bangkok in 2022 [1]. - The overall market environment is challenging due to the deep adjustment in the real estate sector, impacting the company's revenue and profit forecasts [1].