Transwarp(688031) 国泰君安·2024-11-05 03:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 53.71 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have slightly declined, and performance remains under pressure in the short term. However, the gross margin remains at a high level, and the expense structure has been optimized. The AI strategy is continuously deepening, and there is potential for exceeding expectations in the future [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate revenues of 5.24 billion CNY, 6.49 billion CNY, and 7.82 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS of -1.86 CNY, -1.36 CNY, and -0.74 CNY for the same years [2][12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve, with the software business expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.41% from 2019 to 2023, and a forecasted growth of 15.10%, 28.77%, and 23.96% for 2024-2026 [12][14]. - The report uses a price-to-sales (PS) valuation method, applying a conservative 10x PS for 2025, leading to a target price of 53.71 CNY [15]. 2. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.10 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 5.94%, and a net loss of 2.93 billion CNY, with losses widening by 8.92% year-on-year [2][8]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 55.75%, indicating strong performance in productization [2][12]. - The company has optimized its expense structure, with sales and R&D expenses increasing by 2.18% and 9.53% respectively, while management expenses decreased by 10.81% [2][12]. 3. AI Strategy - The company is committed to transitioning from a data infrastructure provider to an AI infrastructure provider, enhancing its AI product offerings [2][12]. - It has developed a comprehensive AI infrastructure toolset that supports the entire process of enterprise-level large model production and application, which is expected to help businesses build knowledge barriers and innovate [2][12].