Miracll(300848) 申万宏源·2024-11-05 03:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its future growth potential and the expected rapid performance improvement after the completion of the Henan project [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with stable shipments and a slight improvement in profitability due to declining upstream raw material costs [4] - The Henan Phase I project is nearing completion, and the Phase II project has been planned, which is expected to extend the company's industrial chain and reduce production costs, opening up growth opportunities [4] - The company's 2024-2026 profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to intensified industry competition, but the long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected profit compound growth rate of 127% [4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 432 million yuan (YoY +8.63%, QoQ +4.21%) and net profit of 19 million yuan (YoY +6.35%, QoQ +2.62%) [4] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 increased by 0.66 percentage points to 13.48%, supported by a decline in raw material costs [4] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 1.724 billion yuan, 2.955 billion yuan, and 4.045 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit expected to be 95 million yuan, 285 million yuan, and 488 million yuan [5][7] Market and Industry Analysis - The TPU product market price in Q3 2024 was 17,544 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.5% QoQ, while raw material prices such as pure MDI, BDO, and adipic acid declined by 2.2%, 10.2%, and 9%, respectively [4] - The company's 100,000-ton capacity construction was gradually put into operation in the first half of 2024, contributing to scale growth [4] - The Henan project includes a 100,000-ton/year HDI production capacity, with HDI prices averaging 29,087 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, indicating high profitability [4] Strategic Developments - The company plans to raise 197 million yuan to build a 10,000-ton/year expanded TPU and 30,000-ton/year PUD project, optimizing its product structure and leveraging industrial integration advantages [4] - The Henan Phase II project includes a 200,000-ton/year special isocyanate expansion and plans for products such as m-phenylenediamine, resorcinol, and acyl chloride, further extending the industrial chain [4]