2025转债市场展望：风格更契合的一年

Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024, with a likely "wide fluctuation, slow rise" trend[1] - Growth stocks and high-quality small-mid caps are favored in the first half of 2025, while large-cap stocks with strong performance are preferred in the second half[1] - The market is expected to focus on three main themes: supply-demand improvement, advanced manufacturing, and domestic demand recovery[1] Convertible Bonds Supply and Demand - Convertible bond supply in 2025 is expected to be weaker than in 2024, with a net supply reduction of around 130 billion RMB[3] - The exit of large-scale convertible bonds like SPDB (500 billion RMB) and CITIC (114 billion RMB) will significantly impact the market[47] - Demand for convertible bonds is expected to remain stable, with insurance funds and ETFs playing a significant role[49] Convertible Bonds Valuation - Convertible bond valuations are expected to recover in 2025, with implied volatility likely to return to the median level since 2018[71] - The market is currently undervalued, with implied volatility at the 20th percentile since 2018[64] - The recovery of stock market volatility and positive market expectations will support the upward revision of convertible bond valuations[71] Convertible Bonds Strategy - Individual bond alpha is expected to be the core source of returns in 2025, rather than market beta or valuation[5] - The year 2025 is likely to see increased activity in terms of clause games, especially for bonds nearing maturity[77] - Credit quality remains a critical factor in bond pricing, with investors advised to avoid excessive credit risk exposure[77] Key Risks - Changes in convertible bond supply policies and potential bond fund redemptions could pose risks to the market[5] - Credit shocks and liquidity risks, especially during key periods like the annual report season and rating adjustments, could impact the market[77] - The exit of weak-quality bonds and the potential for non-standard exits could create market volatility[44]