Hoymiles(688032) 华创证券·2024-11-05 04:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Hemi (688032) with a target price of 172 yuan [1][2] Core Views - Hemi's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by the European summer holiday season, leading to a decline in revenue and shipments [1] - Microinverter shipments in Q3 were approximately 230,000 units, lower than expected due to reduced demand during the holiday period [1] - The company expects full-year microinverter shipments to exceed 1 million units [1] - Large-scale storage business revenue declined in Q3 due to delayed revenue recognition, but is expected to grow in Q4 [1] - New products in commercial storage, residential storage, and micro-solar storage are expected to contribute to profit growth [1] - The European market is expected to recover in 2025, with growth driven by new product launches [1] - The Brazilian market has shown signs of recovery in Q3 and is expected to maintain growth in 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Hemi's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.266 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 246 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.88% [1] - Gross margin was 19.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.10 percentage points [1] - Q3 revenue was 358 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [1] - Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 58 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.43 percentage points [1] Product Development - The company continues to develop new products, including micro-solar storage products launched in Q3, which have received positive market feedback [1] - Commercial storage business is expected to show initial results in 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its market presence and product portfolio, with expectations of revenue growth in 2025 [1] Market Outlook - The European market is expected to recover as inventory reduction nears completion and interest rates decline [1] - The US market is expected to remain stable, with growth driven by new product launches [1] - The company's large-scale storage business is expected to grow rapidly in 2025 [1] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.821 billion yuan, 2.795 billion yuan, and 4.229 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 367 million yuan, 709 million yuan, and 935 million yuan, respectively [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2.96 yuan, 5.73 yuan, and 7.56 yuan, respectively [2]