宏观月报：聚焦内外政策变数

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to remain in a downward phase, with consumption and government spending as the main support forces[1] - The third quarter GDP growth rate was 2.8%, with personal consumption contributing 2.46% and government spending contributing 0.85%[19] - The upcoming election results are anticipated to impact economic policies, with Trump likely to promote tax cuts that could stimulate growth[25] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic economic recovery is indicated, particularly in first-tier cities, but overall internal demand remains weak[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8% in September to 50.1% in October, indicating a slight recovery, though demand constraints persist[8] - Fiscal space for government spending is projected to be around 2.26 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2024, derived from various debt sources[17] Group 3: Market Trends and Asset Outlook - Stock market trends suggest an upward direction, but short-term corrections may occur due to policy expectations[32] - The bond market is expected to remain strong, with a potential for fluctuations due to changing monetary policies[33] - The RMB may experience upward pressure if the US dollar strengthens, but overall, it is likely to remain in a wide fluctuation range between 6.95 and 7.3[35] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential economic downturns if domestic high-frequency data weakens unexpectedly or if the US economy performs better than anticipated[3] - The uncertainty surrounding the election results could lead to volatility in financial markets, particularly affecting commodities and currencies[28]