Fangsheng Pharmaceutical(603998) 华福证券·2024-11-05 07:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fang Sheng Pharmaceutical (603998 SH) [1][3] Core Views - Fang Sheng Pharmaceutical's Q3 2024 non-GAAP net profit grew by over 50% YoY, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - The company's core products, particularly in cardiovascular and orthopedic segments, showed strong performance [1] - Self-developed innovative drugs like Xiaoer Jingxing Zhike Granules and Xuanqi Jiangu Tablets are driving growth with rapid market expansion [1] - The company is increasing R&D investment, with Q3 2024 R&D expenses up 106% YoY, indicating strong long-term potential [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 1 35 billion yuan, up 11% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of 230 million yuan, up 61% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 440 million yuan, up 22% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of 90 million yuan, up 159% YoY [1] Segment Performance - Industrial segment revenue reached 1 24 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, up 14% YoY [1] - Cardiovascular business revenue: 380 million yuan, up 41% YoY, driven by strong sales of Ezetimibe [1] - Orthopedic business revenue: 300 million yuan, up 11% YoY, supported by stable growth of Xuanqi Jiangu Tablets [1] - Respiratory system revenue: 180 million yuan, up 17% YoY, due to increased sales of Qiangli Pipa [1] - Pediatric drugs revenue: 140 million yuan, down 1% YoY [1] - Anti-infective revenue: 60 million yuan, down 10% YoY [1] Product Performance - Xiaoer Jingxing Zhike Granules covered over 1 500 public medical institutions by Q3 2024, with sales reaching 60 million yuan, up over 130% YoY [1] - Xuanqi Jiangu Tablets covered over 1 300 public medical institutions, with sales reaching 86 million yuan, up over 340% YoY [1] - Teng Huang Jiangu Tablets saw sales volume increase by about 14% YoY, covering nearly 8 400 public medical institutions [1] - Ezetimibe Tablets achieved sales of 233 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up over 100% YoY, covering nearly 4 500 public medical institutions [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024 2025 2026 are 1 829 billion yuan, 2 115 billion yuan, and 2 439 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12%, 16%, and 15% respectively [1] - Net profit forecasts for 2024 2025 2026 are adjusted to 277 million yuan, 302 million yuan, and 362 million yuan, with growth rates of 48%, 9%, and 20% respectively [1] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P E ratio: 19 6x [2] - 2024E P B ratio: 3 3x [2] - 2024E EPS: 0 63 yuan [2] Key Financial Ratios - 2023A gross margin: 68 1% [6] - 2023A net margin: 11 0% [6] - 2023A ROE: 11 8% [6] - 2023A ROIC: 12 8% [6] Balance Sheet Highlights - 2024E total assets: 3 293 billion yuan [5] - 2024E total liabilities: 1 525 billion yuan [5] - 2024E equity attributable to parent company: 1 648 billion yuan [5] Cash Flow Analysis - 2024E operating cash flow: 328 million yuan [5] - 2024E capital expenditure: -234 million yuan [5] - 2024E financing cash flow: -109 million yuan [5]