全球宏观：2024年美国大选关注指南

Group 1: Election Timeline - The 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, with preliminary results expected to start coming in after 7 PM EST on the same day[2] - Historically, most election results are announced on election night, except for the 2020 election, which was delayed due to a high number of mail-in ballots[3] - If no candidate secures 270 electoral votes, the election outcome may be decided by Congress in January 2025[3] Group 2: Electoral Votes Distribution - The Democratic Party has a solid base in 22 states with a total of 226 electoral votes, while the Republican Party has a stronghold in 27 states totaling 219 electoral votes[11] - A total of 538 electoral votes are available, with 93 votes from swing states being crucial for reaching the 270-vote threshold needed to win[11] Group 3: Swing States Analysis - Key swing states include Pennsylvania (19 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada (6 votes)[11] - Current polling shows Trump leading in Arizona (+3%) and Georgia (+1%), while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin[14] Group 4: Early Voting Trends - Early voting is lower in 2024 compared to 2020, with significant early voting in North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, where Republicans are leading[25] - In contrast, early voting in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania shows Democratic leads, with margins of +8%, +3%, and +24% respectively[25] Group 5: Importance of Key States - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are critical for the Democrats, as losing any of these states could lead to a Republican victory despite winning other states[27] - Pennsylvania is particularly significant, having historically leaned Democratic except for the 2016 election, and is currently highly competitive[29]