Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous increase in piglet prices, while the average price of market pigs has shown a slight decline. The average price of market pigs decreased by 1.14% week-on-week, reaching 17.31 CNY/kg as of November 1 [9][20]. - Piglet prices have risen by 11.31% week-on-week, with the average price for 7kg piglets at 374.76 CNY/head. This marks a consistent increase over the past three weeks [9][17]. - The average price of culling sows increased by 10.96% week-on-week, reaching 13.87 CNY/kg, with a price ratio of 0.80 compared to market pigs [9][14]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average weight of market pigs at slaughter increased by 0.01% week-on-week to 123.82 kg, while the post-slaughter average weight decreased by 0.02% to 92.09 kg [14]. - The price difference for standard fat pigs widened, indicating a favorable price advantage for fat pigs. The price difference was recorded at -0.69 CNY/kg, suggesting a good market position for fat pigs as demand is expected to rise with colder weather [14][20]. Profitability - As of November 1, the average profit for self-bred pigs was 284.19 CNY/head, a decrease of 5.13 CNY from the previous week. Conversely, the average loss for purchased piglets increased to 32.88 CNY/head, up by 2.82 CNY [17][18]. - The report anticipates that the approaching winter season will boost demand for preserved meat, which may support the prices of market pigs and limit the extent of price declines [17]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4][19]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the poultry sector and animal health segment, indicating a positive outlook for the animal health sector due to the upward trend in the pig cycle [4][19].
农林牧渔行业研究周报:仔猪价格连续回升,肥猪价格优势较好
Shengang Securities·2024-11-05 07:13