跨资产观察周报：美债和美元为何也发生“劈叉”？

Group 1 - The recent divergence between the US dollar and 10-year Treasury yields is attributed to market sentiment and funding issues, influenced by the upcoming US elections and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][10][13] - Since mid-September, following a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by over 55 basis points, despite positive economic data reducing recession fears [10][18] - Concerns over high debt levels and potential inflation from political changes are causing market apprehension regarding the dollar's creditworthiness, leading to simultaneous increases in both gold and Treasury yields [10][13] Group 2 - The National Certificate 2000 index has significantly outperformed the China Securities Dividend Index since the announcement of new policies on September 24, with a rise of 31.93% compared to 11.43% for the latter [14][15] - The market is currently experiencing a divergence in performance between small-cap stocks (represented by the National Certificate 2000) and large-cap stocks (represented by the China Securities Dividend Index), indicating a liquidity-driven rally [15][18] - Future market movements may see a reversal in this trend as liquidity pricing weakens and macroeconomic expectations gain prominence, potentially leading to a period where large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks [15][18] Group 3 - The October non-farm payroll data released on November 1 showed a significant miss with only 12,000 jobs added, which was well below market expectations, yet the stock indices rose following the announcement [18][19] - The labor market remains resilient despite the weak non-farm data, with average hourly earnings showing an increase, suggesting that the weakness may stem from supply-side issues rather than a decline in demand for labor [18][19] - The overall impact of the weak non-farm data on the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate decisions is expected to be limited, as the labor market indicators remain strong [18][19]