LI AUTO(LI) Huajing Securities·2024-11-05 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of US$28.90, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of US$25.06 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to deliver between 160,000 to 170,000 new vehicles in Q4 2024, with projected revenue ranging from RMB 432 billion to RMB 459 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.5% to 10% [4][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved significantly, reaching 21.5%, driven by a decrease in vehicle costs, despite some offset from the increased delivery of lower-priced models [5][10]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in operating profit for Q3 2024, which reached RMB 34.3 billion, a remarkable growth of 633.4% quarter-on-quarter [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 428.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [5][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 11.12, reflecting a 38% increase from previous estimates [1][11]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is RMB 145,464 million, with a gross profit of RMB 30,503 million, indicating a gross margin of 21.0% [8][11]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's 2024-2026 gross margin estimates upward to reflect the ongoing decrease in unit costs, with the gross margin expected to range from 21.0% to 23.2% [7][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to RMB 108.9 billion, RMB 147.0 billion, and RMB 191.2 billion respectively, showing a growth trajectory [10][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady monthly sales volume exceeding 50,000 units, supported by the upcoming BEV new vehicle cycle in 2025 [12][10].