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上海瀚讯:2024年三季报点评:Q3营收及业绩有所回暖,未来业绩释放可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanghai Hanxun (300762) [4] Core Views - Q3 2024 shows signs of recovery in revenue and performance, with future performance expected to improve [1] - Revenue for Q1-3 2024 was RMB 176 million, down 18.38% YoY, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -RMB 91 million, down 45.37% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 70 million, up 1.02% YoY and 83.87% QoQ, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -RMB 39 million, up 18.32% YoY and 6.58% QoQ [1] - The company has increased R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching RMB 160 million in Q1-3 2024, accounting for 90.87% of revenue [1] - The company holds 55 core patents and 114 software copyrights, with strong R&D capabilities [1] - The G60 satellite constellation project is progressing, with 36 satellites currently in orbit, and the company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of low-orbit satellite network construction [2] - The company has successfully bid for and delivered projects related to low-orbit satellite communication payloads and ground systems [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 340 million, RMB 987 million, and RMB 1.328 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -RMB 69 million, RMB 283 million, and RMB 383 million, respectively [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -RMB 0.11, RMB 0.45, and RMB 0.61, respectively [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 64.7% in 2024 and 67.9% in 2026 [6] - ROE is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 10.4%, and further improving to 12.4% in 2026 [6] Industry and Market Context - The low-orbit satellite industry is advancing rapidly, with the G60 constellation expected to provide regional network coverage by 2025 and global coverage by 2027 [2] - The company is a key supplier in the satellite communication sector, with deep cooperation with related entities, and is expected to benefit from the accelerated deployment of low-orbit satellite networks [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1-3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 176 million, down 18.38% YoY, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -RMB 91 million, down 45.37% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 60.98%, up 17.11 percentage points YoY [1] - Asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses increased, with credit impairment losses reaching RMB 47.368 million, accounting for 26.9% of revenue [1]