美凯龙：业绩短期承压，期待国补释放换新需求

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with expectations for demand to be stimulated by national subsidies for replacing old products [4][8] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a slow recovery in post-real estate consumption and temporary rent reductions [3][4] Revenue Summary - The company achieved revenue of 6.105 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 29.62% [3] - The rental income and management fee income have seen a temporary decline due to increased discounts and reduced project numbers [4] - The company is actively participating in the government's "old-for-new" policy, which has shown early positive results in regions like Shanghai [4] Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 59.42%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -32.84%, a decrease of 25.67 percentage points [5] - The company continues to face losses, with a net loss of 1.887 billion yuan attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-end appliances and has launched a new "3+Star Ecosystem" strategy to enhance its market position [7] - It is also expanding its high-end home design services through the establishment of design centers, aiming to create a new ecosystem for high-end home decoration [7] - The company is promoting multi-business collaboration to enhance operational quality and expand growth opportunities [7] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 8.651 billion yuan, 9.069 billion yuan, and 9.365 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be -0.56 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.11 yuan respectively [8]