皖能电力：业绩低于预期，关注安徽偏紧用电格局与增量机组

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter was below expectations, with a net profit of 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.88% [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 22.541 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [3] - The company is expected to face a tight electricity supply in Anhui province, with a projected power gap exceeding 20 million kilowatts by 2025 [4] - The company is strategically positioned with new power plants expected to contribute to revenue growth in the coming years [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 225.41 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.29% [3] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 85.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.12 billion yuan, which was lower than the expected 5.5 billion yuan [3][4] - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 18.6 billion, 23.8 billion, and 25.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 6% [5][6] Market Performance - The company is expected to benefit from a tight electricity supply and stable electricity prices in Anhui, which should support its profitability [4] - The company has a total installed capacity of 12.28 million kilowatts, primarily from thermal power, with ongoing projects expected to enhance capacity further [5] - The company’s stock is currently trading at a PE ratio of 9 for 2024, indicating potential value for investors [5][6]