皖能电力：业绩低于预期 关注安徽偏紧用电格局与增量机组

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter was below expectations, with a net profit of 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.88% [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 22.541 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [3] - The company is expected to face a tight electricity supply situation in Anhui province, with a projected power gap exceeding 20 million kilowatts by 2025 [4] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the tight supply and stable electricity prices in the region [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a net profit of 15.83 billion yuan, up 21.29% year-on-year, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 15.66 billion yuan, up 25.07% [3] - The company’s total revenue for the third quarter was 8.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.07% [3] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 17.52 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.73 yuan per share [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 18.6 billion yuan, 23.8 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 6% [5] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 9, 7, and 7 times, respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with significant contributions from new coal-fired power plants and renewable energy projects [5]