食品饮料2024年三季报总结：白酒主动降速/蓄力明年，诸多大众品最大压力点已过，看好板块布局机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the high-end liquor segment, particularly Moutai, is expected to see revenue and profit align with forecasts, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are proactively slowing down to build strength for future growth. The overall policy shift is viewed positively for further valuation recovery in high-end liquor [11][13] - The report anticipates a recovery in the frozen food sector's revenue in Q4, with profit improvements expected to follow. The operational pressure faced in Q3 is seen as having passed, with a rebound in market demand anticipated [2][24] - The snack food sector shows strong revenue growth resilience, with recommendations for active investment in Q4's peak season opportunities. The overall growth in the snack category is stable, driven by high-quality and cost-effective trends [2][3] - The soft drink segment is led by Dongpeng, which shows strong performance, while LuLu demonstrates operational resilience. The report expects a recovery in net profit margins for Happy Family, indicating high elasticity [2][3] - The bakery market is experiencing weak demand, but raw material businesses are performing well. The report predicts a revenue acceleration for Lihai Foods in Q4, with strong profit elasticity expected next year [2][3] - The dairy industry is seeking a new balance between supply and demand, with low-temperature products remaining relatively prosperous. The report forecasts stable or improved profit margins for Yili in 2024 [2][3] - The beer sector is under pressure with overall revenue growth, awaiting demand recovery. The report notes that the beer market consumption remains sluggish, with companies facing volume and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Sections Baijiu - The baijiu sector's overall revenue performance has slowed down, with short-term demand under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sector achieved total revenue of 3387.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.71% [7] - High-end liquor revenue growth rates for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao were 16.91%, 8.60%, and 10.76% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 15.04%, 9.19%, and 9.72% [11][12] - The next-tier liquor segment shows external pressures reflected in financial reports, with Shanxi Fenjiu and Shui Jing Fang maintaining stability, while Shede and Jiu Gui continue to decline [17][19] Consumer Goods - The frozen food sector is expected to see a revenue rebound in Q4, with profit improvements anticipated following a challenging Q3 [2][24] - The snack food sector is characterized by strong revenue growth resilience, with a focus on high-quality and cost-effective products [2][3] - The soft drink segment is led by Dongpeng, which shows strong performance, while LuLu demonstrates operational resilience [2][3] - The bakery market is experiencing weak demand, but raw material businesses are performing well, with Lihai Foods expected to accelerate revenue in Q4 [2][3] - The dairy industry is seeking a new balance between supply and demand, with Yili expected to maintain stable or improved profit margins [2][3] - The beer sector is under pressure with overall revenue growth, awaiting demand recovery [2][3]