美国大选跟踪：哈里斯与特朗普的政策异同

Group 1: Election Overview - The 2024 U.S. presidential election is highly competitive, with Harris and Trump having closely matched support rates[2] - Trump's policies favor tax cuts and deregulation, while Harris advocates for increased taxes on the wealthy and greater government spending on social programs[7] - Both candidates show a tough stance on China, but differ in their approaches to tariffs and technology decoupling[8] Group 2: Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs significantly impact China's economy and capital markets, with a notable example being the tariffs imposed during Trump's first term[11] - In 2023, the U.S. accounted for 14.8% of China's export share, down from 19.0% in 2017, reflecting a 4.2% decrease[13] - The average tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. has reached 19.3%, indicating a substantial trade barrier[13] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - A hypothetical 60% tariff on Chinese goods could lead to a 6.0% impact on the RMB exchange rate, assuming other currencies remain stable[13] - Following the announcement of tariffs in March 2018, the RMB depreciated, and the A-share market experienced a downturn, highlighting the immediate market reactions[11] - Despite initial declines, the A-share market later stabilized and even saw growth in certain sectors, driven by domestic policy support and improved global liquidity[11]