CCB(601939) 天风证券·2024-11-05 10:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 9.75 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 8.06 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 569 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 0.13% in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating a recovery in profit growth [2][21]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.35%, with a non-performing loan coverage ratio of 237.0%, reflecting a stable asset quality [3][19]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.52%, showing a slight decline of 2 basis points compared to mid-2024, suggesting that pressure on interest margins may ease in the future [10][21]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 813.4 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.67% expected in 2024, followed by 7.04% in 2025 and 9.33% in 2026 [22]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow by 0.63% in 2024, 2.65% in 2025, and 4.54% in 2026, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.34 CNY, 1.37 CNY, and 1.44 CNY respectively [21][22]. - The bank's total assets reached 427,859 billion CNY by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in interest-earning assets [22]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the third quarter of 2024, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 401,076 billion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.6% [3][15]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities were 357,687 billion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, indicating a stable growth in liabilities [3][15]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The non-performing loan balance was 346.9 billion CNY, maintaining a ratio of 1.35%, which is consistent with the previous quarter [19][20]. - The loan provision coverage ratio was reported at 237.0%, indicating a robust ability to cover potential loan losses [19][20]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price of 9.75 CNY corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.72x for 2024, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to the current market price [4][21]. - The bank's return on average assets (ROAA) is projected to be 0.83% in 2024, with a return on average equity (ROAE) of 9.89% [22].