理想汽车-W：成本管控优秀，毛利率超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of 223.6 billion RMB and a target price of approximately 115 HKD for the stock [5][7]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3, with a sales volume of 153,000 units, representing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 45% and 41% respectively. Revenue reached 42.87 billion RMB, up 23.6% year-on-year and 35.3% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 21.5%, exceeding expectations due to effective cost control [1][4]. - The company has expanded its charging network significantly, with 1,004 supercharging stations and 4,910 charging piles as of November 3. It aims to have over 2,000 supercharging stations by next year [3]. - The rollout of the end-to-end and VLM intelligent driving solutions has exceeded expectations, with a large-scale user testing conducted in September and an OTA update pushed to users in October [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 financial highlights include a net profit of 2.8 billion RMB, maintaining year-on-year performance while showing a 155% increase quarter-on-quarter. The non-GAAP net profit reached 3.845 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase [1][5]. - For Q4, the company expects vehicle deliveries between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with projected revenue of 43.2 to 45.9 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.5% to 10% [4]. - The company forecasts total sales of approximately 510,000 units for 2024, with revenues reaching 146 billion RMB, and expects to maintain a gross margin around 21% [5][14]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its sales channels by replacing underperforming stores with automotive city stores, aiming for over 40% of its stores to be automotive city stores by the end of the year [3]. - The projected sales volumes for 2024 to 2026 are 510,000, 640,000, and 840,000 units respectively, with total revenues expected to reach 1,460 billion RMB in 2024 [5][14].