昀冢科技：CMI领先企业受益光学创新，电子陶瓷构筑第二增长曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.35 RMB per share [1][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer electronics, particularly in the smartphone market, which will drive demand for its CMI products [1][2] - The company's MLCC business is entering a small-scale production phase, with potential for significant growth as the industry recovers and domestic substitution accelerates [3][5] - The DPC ceramic substrate business is poised to become a new growth driver, benefiting from the laser industry's expansion and domestic substitution trends [5][66] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 612 million RMB in 2024E to 1.02 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 18.6% [1] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025E, reaching 48 million RMB, and further increase to 85 million RMB in 2026E [1] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve significantly, from -46.5% in 2024E to 24.9% in 2026E [1] Business Segments Consumer Electronics - The company is a leading manufacturer of CMI products, which are used in smartphone camera modules (CCM) and voice coil motors (VCM) [1][12] - CMI products are expected to see strong demand due to the recovery in smartphone shipments and the adoption of advanced camera technologies like periscope lenses [5][61] Automotive Electronics - The company is expanding its presence in the automotive electronics market, focusing on chassis control systems, including ABS, ESC, and ONE BOX products [12][62] - The domestic market share for automotive precision components is expected to increase, driven by the rapid adoption of wire-controlled chassis systems [62] Electronic Ceramics - The company is accelerating the development of high-capacity, small-size MLCC products, targeting applications in consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial markets [3][65] - The DPC ceramic substrate business is expected to benefit from the growth in high-power LED, laser, and VCSEL markets, with a projected CAGR of 4.43% from 2023 to 2029 [52][66] Industry Trends Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 4.0% YoY in Q3 2024, reaching 316 million units, driven by strong demand from Chinese manufacturers [2][31] - The adoption of advanced camera technologies, such as periscope lenses and OIS, is driving demand for VCM and CCM components [33][61] Automotive Market - The domestic automotive market is experiencing steady growth, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 32% YoY in H1 2024 [36] - The penetration rate of wire-controlled braking systems is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, with new energy vehicles leading the adoption [36][62] MLCC Market - The global MLCC market is projected to grow from 974 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.04 trillion RMB in 2024, driven by demand from consumer electronics, automotive, and AI applications [39][41] - Domestic substitution for high-end MLCC products is accelerating, with Chinese manufacturers expected to capture a larger share of the market [63][65] DPC Ceramic Substrate Market - The global DPC ceramic substrate market is forecasted to grow from 2.52 billion USD in 2023 to 3.27 billion USD in 2029, with a CAGR of 4.43% [52][66] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top three players accounting for over 60% of the global market share [66]