BYD(SZ:002594) AVIC Securities·2024-11-05 12:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD (002594) is "Buy" with an expectation of returns exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights BYD's strong performance in the electric vehicle (EV) market, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching 502.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a net profit of 25.24 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain stable profitability amidst industry price wars, driven by high sales growth and expansion into high-margin overseas markets [1]. - BYD's global market share in the new energy vehicle sector reached 22.0% in the first eight months of 2024, with a significant increase in high-end model sales contributing to profit growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, BYD reported a revenue of 201.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.2%. The net profit for the same quarter was 11.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase and a 28.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the net margin improved to 6.0%, up 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Trends - The global electric vehicle market is experiencing steady growth, with global EV sales reaching 11.699 million units in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a penetration rate of 18.1% [1]. - In China, EV sales for the same period reached 8.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.5%, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [1]. Strategic Initiatives - BYD is focusing on expanding its presence in overseas markets and enhancing its high-end product offerings, which are expected to further boost profitability [1]. - The company has reported a significant increase in its export volume, with 298,000 passenger vehicles exported in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 104.7% [1]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts BYD's net profit for 2024 to be 38.94 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 29.6%, 28.2%, and 22.1% for the following years [4].