“反特朗普交易”提振市场风险偏好

Market Performance - On November 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.32%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.75%[1] - The total trading volume of the A-shares reached 2.35 trillion CNY, marking a recent high[1] - All sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in defense and military (6.33%), computer (5.60%), non-bank financials (4.97%), real estate (4.18%), and electronics (4.14%)[1] Key Drivers - The market surge was primarily driven by the "anti-Trump trade," as the probability of Harris winning the election increased significantly, reversing previous market trends[1] - Anticipation of policy announcements from the National People's Congress (NPC) also contributed to market optimism, particularly regarding local government debt and real estate support policies[1] - The upcoming Zhuhai Airshow featuring the J-35A fighter jet boosted military stocks, leading to substantial gains in the defense sector[1] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the market may experience increased volatility in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election results and other significant events[1] - Following the resolution of these key events, the market is expected to trend upwards, with a higher probability of overall gains[1] - The focus will shift to economic conditions and policy measures in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which may further influence market sentiment[1] Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and economic recovery, as well as the possibility of an unexpected downturn in the U.S. economy[2]