基础化工行业2024年三季报总结：化工盈利或筑底，产能周期见拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is experiencing a potential bottoming out in profitability, with signs of a turning point in the capacity cycle [1]. - Product prices are stabilizing at the bottom, leading to some pressure on chemical profitability. The average price of WTI crude oil in Q3 was $75.34 per barrel, down 8.22% year-on-year and 6.51% quarter-on-quarter [1][15]. - The industry saw a slight revenue increase of 2.27% year-on-year in the first three quarters, primarily supported by volume compensating for price declines [1][13]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In the first three quarters of 2024, the basic chemical industry achieved revenue of 17,888.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,035.47 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.92%, but the drop was significantly less than the 45.34% decline in 2023 [13][28]. Profitability - The industry’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 16.91%, a slight increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 5.79% [2][3]. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow improved by 10.01% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a net cash ratio consistently above 1 since 2018, indicating good profitability quality [3]. Investment and R&D - The growth rate of construction projects and capital expenditures has slowed, indicating a potential turning point in the rapid expansion cycle of the chemical industry. The total construction projects amounted to 4,436.38 billion yuan, up 7.82% year-on-year, but the growth rate has contracted by 7.00 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][5]. Debt Servicing Ability - As of Q3 2024, the industry’s debt-to-asset ratio was 48.24%, showing a slight increase of 0.31 percentage points, but remains at a manageable level [3].