新强联：三季报点评：最差阶段已过，明年风电装机有望高增长带动业绩反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [14]. Core Views - The worst phase for the company has passed, and significant growth in wind power installations is anticipated for the next year, which is expected to drive a reversal in performance [1]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified industry competition and a significant loss in fair value of financial assets [1][4]. - The wind power sector is projected to continue growing, supported by increasing bidding volumes and a commitment to fair competition among industry players [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.06%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -36 million yuan, reflecting a 74.52% decrease [1]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 16.74%, down 9.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -1.16%, down 18.13 percentage points [1][12]. Market Dynamics - The wind power industry saw a 16.85% year-on-year increase in new installed capacity, with significant growth in both onshore and offshore wind projects [3]. - The bidding volume for wind power projects has surged, with a 93% increase in new tender capacity, indicating robust future demand [3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted to 2.891 billion, 3.595 billion, and 4.158 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 50 million, 358 million, and 478 million yuan [4][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 160.98X for 2024, decreasing to 22.52X and 16.85X in the following years [4][5]. Competitive Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic wind power bearing market, with a comprehensive product range that includes main shaft bearings and yaw bearings [2]. - The establishment of a full industrial chain, including the acquisition of Saint Jiu Forging, enhances the company's cost control capabilities and competitive advantage [2].