Enlight Media(300251) 东吴证券·2024-11-05 16:54Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 107 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.85%, with net profit attributable to the parent company turning to a loss of -12 million yuan and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company turning to a loss of -28 million yuan [1] - The company's summer film releases underperformed expectations, with the main film "From the 21st Century Safe Withdrawal" achieving a cumulative box office of 112 million yuan as of November 4, 2024 [2] - The company has a rich pipeline of high-quality live-action and animated films, with expectations for performance release in 2025 [2] - TV/web series projects are gradually being launched, and artist management and content-related businesses are progressing in an orderly manner [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company forecast has been revised down from 1.02/1.18/1.31 billion yuan to 0.54/1.02/1.29 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of approximately 47/25/20 times for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue: 107 million yuan, down 67.85% YoY [1] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company: -12 million yuan [1] - 2024 Q3 non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company: -28 million yuan [1] - 2024 Q3 investment losses: approximately 24.44 million yuan [1] - Cumulative box office for "From the 21st Century Safe Withdrawal" as of November 4, 2024: 112 million yuan [2] - Cumulative box office for "Qiao Yan's Heart" as of November 4, 2024: 134 million yuan [2] Film and TV Projects - Summer 2024 film releases underperformed expectations [2] - Upcoming film releases: "Sure Win" scheduled for November 15, 2024 [2] - Rich pipeline of live-action films: "Little People", "Her Little Pear Vortex", "Transparent Lovers", "Moduo's Mystery Adventure", "Moerdaoga", "Forty-Four Astringent Persimmons" [2] - Animated films in development: "Little Nie", "Nezha: The Devil's Child", "Three Kingdoms' Starry Sky", "Go to Your Island", "Big Fish & Begonia 2", "Longing", "Shuo Feng", "Non-Human", "Zhuolu", "Journey to the West: The Great Sage's Uproar", "Jiang Ziya 2", "Tea Ah Middle School 2", "Yesterday Once More 2" [2] - TV/web series projects: "Fuyu An" aired on Tencent Video and Mango TV on July 31, 2024, "Shanhe Zhen" in post-production, "Chunri Yan" and "My Dating List" in development [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.81/2.55/3.06 billion yuan [1] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company forecast: 0.54/1.02/1.29 billion yuan [3] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0.18/0.35/0.44 yuan per share [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios: 47/25/20 times [3] Market Data - Closing price: 9.01 yuan [5] - 52-week low/high: 6.43/10.91 yuan [5] - P/B ratio: 2.97 times [5] - Market cap: 26.43 billion yuan [5] - Circulating A-share market cap: 25.11 billion yuan [5] Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 gross margin: 40.41%/51.39%/53.42% [9] - 2024-2026 net margin attributable to the parent company: 29.95%/40.03%/42.10% [9] - 2024-2026 ROE: 5.90%/10.00%/11.21% [10] - 2024-2026 ROIC: 5.57%/10.01%/11.30% [10] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024-2026 total assets: 10.59/11.91/13.45 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 total liabilities: 1.39/1.69/1.95 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 operating cash flow: 431/870/1,121 million yuan [10] - 2024-2026 net cash increase: 248/763/1,014 million yuan [10]