建设机械点评报告：三季报业绩承压，行业出清塔机利用率拐点已现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under pressure, with a revenue of 1.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19%, and a net profit of -628 million yuan, compared to -351 million yuan in the same period last year. This is primarily due to weak downstream real estate demand. However, a turning point in tower crane utilization may have been reached, and as the industry clears, market share is expected to increase, with potential improvements in pricing, gross margin, and net margin [2][3] - The company is positioned to benefit from real estate and debt resolution policies, with an accelerated market share increase due to industry clearing. The domestic market share is approximately 4% as of May 2023, with significant potential for growth [2][3] - Recent favorable real estate policies include interest rate cuts and measures to stabilize the market, which are expected to positively impact the company's performance [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.982 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year, and a net profit of -628 million yuan. The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates net profits of -796 million yuan, -289 million yuan, and a profit of 40 million yuan, respectively, with a projected PB of 1.0 times in 2024 [2][3][6] Market Position and Policies - The tower crane rental market is currently undergoing a clearing process, which is expected to enhance the company's market share. The utilization rate of tower cranes has shown a positive trend, reaching 55.6% in October 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][3][18] - The company is set to benefit from various real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including a series of financial support measures announced by the central bank and government [2][3][9] Support from Major Shareholder - The major shareholder, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, is a large state-owned enterprise that is expected to provide both financing and business support. The company plans to issue shares to the major shareholder to raise up to 1.26 billion yuan for working capital and debt repayment [2][3][11]