证券行业2024年三季报综述：投资端率先兑现，驱动券商业绩回归增长区间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The investment-driven performance recovery in the third quarter has led to a significant rebound in the performance of securities firms, with a projected industry net profit growth of 23.6% year-on-year to 170.3 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) Mergers and acquisitions among leading securities firms, focusing on quality firms like Citic Securities and China Galaxy; 2) The brokerage business benefiting from improved capital market liquidity, with a focus on firms like East Money [1] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Driven by Investment - The overall performance of listed securities firms showed a significant narrowing of revenue and net profit declines, with Q3 2024 revenue and net profit increasing by 21.0% and 40.8% year-on-year, respectively [4][9] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the total revenue of 43 listed securities firms was 371.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 103.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of only 2.7% and 5.9%, respectively [9][10] 2. Business Segments Under Pressure - Brokerage business revenue decreased by 13.6% to 66.4 billion yuan due to declining trading volumes and commission rates [17] - Asset management revenue fell by 2.5% to 33.9 billion yuan, with a total private asset management scale of 6.42 trillion yuan, showing an 8.3% increase from the beginning of the year [19] - Investment banking revenue dropped significantly, with equity financing down 76.4% year-on-year to 231.6 billion yuan, while bond underwriting grew by 1.3% to 1.009 trillion yuan [21] 3. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top five firms accounting for 41.1% of revenue and 51.2% of net profit, up 3.0 percentage points and 5.7 percentage points from the previous year [15][16] - The performance disparity between leading and smaller firms has widened, with the top 22 firms seeing a net profit increase of 1.5%, while the bottom 21 firms experienced a 48.2% decline [15] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts a 23.6% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities industry in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) adjustment to 5.6% [1][4] - Investment recommendations focus on leading firms benefiting from market conditions and strategic acquisitions, as well as those with high elasticity in brokerage services [1]