2024年9月快递行业数据点评：9月行业件量增速同比提升，期待旺季需求进一步增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the express delivery industry, anticipating significant demand growth in 2024 as the industry enters its peak season [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a year-on-year growth in business volume of 18.7% in September 2024, with a total of 14.97 billion packages delivered [1][7]. - The average selling price (ASP) for express delivery services has decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, reaching 7.94 yuan per package in September 2024 [2][21]. - Major players such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have seen increases in their market shares, with YTO leading at 15.4% [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Flow - In September 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 4.1 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, while online retail sales slightly declined by 0.3% [1][7]. 2. Volume - The express delivery business volume for September 2024 was 14.97 billion packages, marking an 18.7% increase year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2024, the total volume reached 123.77 billion packages, up 22.0% year-on-year [1][7]. 3. Price - The average price of express delivery services in September 2024 was 7.94 yuan, down 1.14 yuan from the previous year, reflecting a 12.5% decrease [2][21]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration remains stable, with the CR8 index at 85.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO reported package volumes of 1.14 billion, 2.04 billion, 2.00 billion, and 2.31 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 22.0%, 21.9%, and 28.0% [2][27].