家用电器行业研究深度报告：如何看待当下家电行情及龙头估值演绎？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, recommending a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, Anker Innovations, and Roborock [2][3] Core Views - The home appliance sector has shown strong performance recently, driven by policy support, with white goods (白电) being the top-performing sub-sector [1][3] - The current valuation of leading home appliance companies has surpassed 15x P/E, primarily driven by policy factors, similar to the trend observed in 2019, suggesting potential sustainability [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking macroeconomic policies and the progress of home appliance replacement policies to assess the sustainability of the sector's growth [1][3] Historical Performance of the Home Appliance Sector - Since 2000, the A-share market has experienced four major bull runs, during which the home appliance sector's performance closely mirrored the broader market, with the white goods sub-sector consistently outperforming [4][11] - During these bull runs, the white goods sub-sector outperformed the broader market by an average of 60.3 percentage points, followed by small appliances (+30.6pct), home appliance components (+25.7pct), lighting equipment (-12.0pct), kitchen appliances (-41.4pct), and black goods (-44.1pct) [4][13] Valuation Trends of Leading Companies - Leading home appliance companies, such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, have seen their valuations exceed 15x P/E multiple times, driven by factors such as industry growth, policy support, and company-specific developments [5][23] - Midea Group, due to its robust fundamentals, typically leads in valuation increases during non-company-specific market rallies and maintains high valuations for longer periods [5][23] - Gree Electric, with its more limited business scope, has only twice exceeded the 15x P/E threshold, driven by industry and policy factors [5][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: 1) White goods leaders with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as Midea Group and Gree Electric, with marginal increases in allocations to Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances [6][52] 2) Two-wheel vehicle leaders benefiting from replacement policies and new national standards, such as Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings [6][52] 3) Companies with strong brand advantages and high growth potential, such as Anker Innovations and Roborock, which are expected to see valuation increases [6][52] Historical Valuation Analysis - During the high-growth phase (pre-2011), the valuation of white goods leaders remained above 15x P/E, but after entering the mature phase, the valuation center dropped below 15x P/E [26][34] - Valuation increases driven by industry growth or policy factors tend to be more sustainable, while those driven by company-specific factors are often short-lived [5][34] - Midea Group's valuation has historically been the first to rise during market rallies and has maintained high valuations for the longest duration [5][23]