京沪高铁：铁路客运增长放缓，京福安徽扭亏为盈

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights a slowdown in railway passenger growth, with a 0.9% year-on-year decline in operating revenue to 11.493 billion yuan and a 3.2% decrease in net profit to 3.658 billion yuan for Q3 2024 [3][4]. - Passenger demand growth is slowing down, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in passenger volume, but a 3.3 percentage point decline compared to the previous quarter [3][4]. - The report indicates that long-distance railway passenger demand may be affected by competition from airlines, particularly on the Beijing-Shanghai route, where average ticket prices fell by 40% year-on-year while passenger volume increased by 22.1% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.493 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, while operating costs rose by 0.7% to 5.794 billion yuan [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.658 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, with minority interests contributing 0.15 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company’s total profit from the Beijing-Shanghai line was 4.951 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7% compared to Q3 2023 [4][5]. Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in net profit, with projections of 12.84 billion yuan, 14.49 billion yuan, and 16.35 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21.6, 19.2, and 17.0 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the natural geographical advantages of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, which connects two major economic regions, and anticipates continued growth in passenger traffic from these areas [5][6]. Cost Management - The company has managed to reduce its period expenses by 16.3% year-on-year to 639 million yuan, while financial expenses have decreased due to improvements in the balance sheet [4][5]. - The report notes that the company’s fixed sales, management, and R&D expenses have remained stable, contributing to overall cost control [4][5].