【宏观专题】两轮供给侧改革的回顾

Group 1: Background of Supply-Side Reforms - The two rounds of supply-side reforms began in 1998 and 2016, both triggered by low capacity utilization and significant price pressures[1] - In 1998, the capacity utilization rate dropped to 30.55%, and the PPI turned negative at -4.1%[9] - In 2016, the capacity utilization rate further declined to 35.2%, with the PPI remaining negative for 15 consecutive quarters[9] Group 2: Industries Involved - The 1998 reform focused on textiles and coal, with textile profit margins dropping to an average of -0.3% from 1991 to 1997[2] - The 2016 reform targeted coal and steel, with coal mining profit margins falling to 1.7% in 2015, the lowest since 2001[16] Group 3: Key Measures - Setting clear targets and breaking them down by province and year was essential, with the 1998 textile target being 1 million spindles over three years[22] - The 2016 coal target was to reduce capacity by 250 million tons in the first year, exceeding the actual reduction of 290 million tons[17] - Strict enforcement measures were implemented to ensure effective capacity reduction, including multiple special enforcement actions[22] Group 4: Implementation Effects - The textile industry saw a slow recovery, with profit margins only improving significantly by 2002 after reducing excess capacity of approximately 10 million spindles[2] - The coal industry began to recover by 2002, with profit margins reaching 4.3% after a significant reduction in production from 1.4 billion tons in 1996 to 1 billion tons in 2000[2] - The 2016 reforms showed quicker results, with profitability returning to the average levels of the previous decade by 2017 due to better execution and external demand recovery[2]