CITIC Metal (601061) 民生证券·2024-11-06 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommend" rating for the company, with projected PE ratios of 19x, 21x, and 16x for 2024-2026 respectively [4][27] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 8.2% YoY and 17.7% QoQ to RMB 30.807 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.8% YoY to RMB 610 million [1][12] - Investment income surged significantly, with Q1-Q3 2024 investment net income reaching RMB 1.7 billion, a 173.64% YoY increase [3][15] - The company's gross margin declined to 0.89% in Q1-Q3 2024, down 0.89 percentage points YoY [3][15] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 95.057 billion, a slight 0.3% YoY increase [1][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew 9.2% YoY to RMB 1.717 billion in Q1-Q3 2024 [1][12] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 6.7% YoY to RMB 1.308 billion in Q1-Q3 2024 [1][12] Operational Metrics - Operating cash flow decreased by 183.63% in Q1-Q3 2024, mainly due to increased prepayments for mining operations and logistics challenges in Africa [3][15] - Sales expenses increased by 123.39% YoY in Q3 2024, while R&D expenses decreased by 10.33% [3][15] Business Strategy Trade and Investment Dual Drive - The company focuses on consolidating resource supply through trade development and acquiring upstream mining distribution rights [4][21] - It emphasizes global resource acquisition and integration across the industrial chain, providing value-added services in marketing, logistics, and channels [4][21] Global Asset Investment - The company holds equity in Ivanhoe Mines and Western Superconducting, with a total value of approximately RMB 31.2 billion as of H1 2024 [4][21] - Key investments include the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in Congo, Las Bambas Copper Mine in Peru, and CBMM Niobium Mine in Brazil [21][24] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from global resource investments, with projected net profits of RMB 2.224 billion, RMB 1.954 billion, and RMB 2.529 billion for 2024-2026 respectively [4][27] - Revenue growth is forecasted at 0.4%, 7.4%, and 4.2% for 2024-2026, with gross margins expected to improve [6][27]