Huachuang Securities·2024-11-06 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Guotai Junan [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in proprietary business income [1] - The report highlights the positive outlook for the company's business development against the backdrop of Shanghai's international financial center construction, leading to adjusted earnings forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for Q3 2024 reached 22.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a quarterly revenue of 9.4 billion yuan, up 26.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with a quarterly net profit of 4.51 billion yuan, up 19.8% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's proprietary business net income totaled 12.28 billion yuan, with a quarterly income of 6.3 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.54% [1] - The report indicates a proprietary business return rate of 2.1% (non-annualized) for the reporting period, with a quarterly return rate of 1.1% [1] Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.38 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.62 yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.30 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.57 yuan [1][2] - The report projects a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.14 for 2024, 1.09 for 2025, and 1.05 for 2026, with a target price of 23.61 yuan based on a 1.3 times PB valuation for 2025 [1][2]