Sungrow Power Supply(300274) 太平洋·2024-11-06 08:15Investment Rating - Buy/Maintain rating for Sungrow Power (300274) with a target price of 92.70 yuan [2] Core Views - Sungrow Power's Q3 2024 revenue reached 18.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% [3] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 31.3% and 15.5%, respectively, with a slight decline in profitability due to increased sales and R&D expenses, as well as foreign exchange losses [4] - The company's operating cash flow turned significantly positive in Q3 2024, reaching 3.408 billion yuan [4] - Sungrow Power is expected to accelerate revenue recognition in Q4 2024, driven by delayed recognition of energy storage products [4] Business Performance - Inverter business revenue grew steadily with the industry, and gross margin increased in an orderly manner [4] - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 49.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3] Strategic Initiatives - Sungrow Power's subsidiary, Sungrow New Energy, plans to acquire 10.24% of Taihe Intelligent for 450 million yuan to enhance production efficiency and automation [5] - The company plans to issue GDR on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange to raise 4.88 billion yuan for expanding inverter and energy storage production capacity, targeting 35GWh of energy storage and 50GW of inverter equipment annually [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 87.32 billion yuan, 106.16 billion yuan, and 122.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 15.9%, and 11.9%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 12.53 billion yuan, and 14.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 15.9%, and 11.9%, respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18x, 15x, and 14x for 2024-2026 [6] Historical Financials - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 40.26 billion yuan, 72.25 billion yuan, 87.32 billion yuan, 106.16 billion yuan, and 122.62 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be 3.59 billion yuan, 9.44 billion yuan, 10.81 billion yuan, 12.53 billion yuan, and 14.03 billion yuan, respectively [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 18x, 15x, and 14x, respectively [6] - The PB ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 5.18x, 3.87x, and 3.02x, respectively [9] - The PS ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.20x, 1.81x, and 1.57x, respectively [9]