CRRC(601766) 国金证券·2024-11-06 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China CRRC (601766.SH) [1] Core Views - The demand for railway equipment is continuously recovering, with the recent tender for high-speed trains exceeding expectations. The tender includes 80 sets of CRRC's Fuxing smart trains, indicating a significant scale of bidding [1][2] - The growth in railway investment is accelerating, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% in 2023 and 10.3% in the first nine months of 2024. Additionally, passenger volume has increased by 13.8% during the same period, supporting the long-term growth of CRRC's train revenue [2] - The maintenance business for high-speed trains is expected to see substantial growth, with a significant increase in tenders for the fifth-level maintenance of trains, indicating a peak period for maintenance services [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be RMB 258.8 billion, RMB 285.2 billion, and RMB 312.8 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 13.7 billion, RMB 15.4 billion, and RMB 16.7 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [4][7] Business Analysis - The tender for high-speed trains and the increase in railway investment are expected to drive long-term revenue growth for CRRC's train segment. The total tendered amount for high-speed trains has reached 245 sets, significantly higher than the 164 sets tendered in 2023 [2] - The maintenance business is also projected to grow, with tenders for fifth-level maintenance increasing from 108 sets in 2023 to 509 sets in 2024 [3] - The introduction of policies encouraging the replacement of old diesel locomotives is expected to further enhance revenue from railway equipment, with CRRC launching new energy locomotives to meet market needs [3] Financial Projections - The report outlines a steady growth trajectory for CRRC, with expected revenue growth rates of 10.49% in 2024, 10.18% in 2025, and 9.69% in 2026. Net profit growth rates are projected at 17.08%, 12.12%, and 8.88% for the same years [7][4]