Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Donghai Securities·2024-11-06 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and a modest increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 28.959 billion yuan, down 6.52% year-on-year, and net profit of 4.990 billion yuan, up 1.67% [2] - The report highlights that terminal demand is weak, impacting both volume and price, with total sales volume for Q1-Q3 at 6.785 million kiloliters, down 6.98% [3] - The report anticipates a cost advantage in the coming year due to a decrease in raw material prices, particularly barley, which is expected to continue to benefit the company's margins [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.891 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.28%, and a net profit of 1.348 billion yuan, down 9.03% [2] - The average price per ton for Q1-Q3 was 4,268.09 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.50%, while Q3 saw a marginal decline to 4,125.75 yuan per ton [3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 42.12%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points, attributed to lower costs of raw materials [4] - The report notes an increase in sales and management expense ratios, indicating higher promotional spending in a weak market [4] Future Outlook - The report projects a gradual recovery in sales as consumption stimulus policies take effect, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 4.263 billion, 4.634 billion, and 4.996 billion yuan respectively [5] - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 3.12, 3.40, and 3.66 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.23, 20.46, and 18.97 [5]