大秦铁路：业绩符合预期，Q4运输需求有望回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a forecast for improved transportation demand in Q4 [4] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 55.214 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.18%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.603 billion, down 22.57% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is expected to see a recovery in coal transportation demand in Q4 due to seasonal factors and a stabilization in the macroeconomic environment [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 55.214 billion, a decline of 9.18% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at CNY 18.608 billion, down 8.59% year-on-year [2][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was CNY 8.603 billion, a decrease of 22.57% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at CNY 2.740 billion, down 23.34% year-on-year [2][6] Operational Insights - The total cargo transportation volume for the first nine months of 2024 was 286 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.14% [6] - The decline in coal production in Shanxi province, the main source of coal for the company, was attributed to strict regulations and low coal prices [6] - Q4 is expected to see a recovery in coal transportation demand due to the winter season and a decrease in port coal inventory [6] Dividend Policy - The company has a robust dividend policy, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 4.5% for 2024 [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.13 per share for the first half of 2024, totaling CNY 2.36 billion, which is 40.24% of the H1 net profit [6] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 77.379 billion, CNY 81.343 billion, and CNY 83.677 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.49%, 5.12%, and 2.87% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are CNY 9.916 billion, CNY 11.293 billion, and CNY 11.722 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.88%, 13.89%, and 3.79% respectively [7]