中信证券：2024年三季报点评：龙头优势凸显，自营业务增长强劲

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] - The current price is 28.12 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 394.84 billion CNY [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 2.3% for the third quarter of 2024, reaching 167.99 billion CNY [4][5] - The self-operated business has shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall performance, with a revenue increase of 37.3% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in capital market sentiment, leading to improved performance in various business segments [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 461.42 billion CNY, a 0.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The basic earnings per share for Q3 was 1.09 CNY, reflecting a 0.9% increase year-on-year [4] - The total assets and net assets at the end of Q3 were 1.73 trillion CNY and 286.51 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.83% and 2.59% [4] Business Segments - The self-operated business revenue for the first three quarters was 216.64 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 37.3% [4] - The brokerage and investment banking segments experienced declines, with revenues down 8.7% and 46.4% respectively [4] - The asset management business showed slight growth, with a revenue increase of 1.1% [4] Future Projections - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 202.50 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 2.68% for 2024, 24.48% for 2025, and 9.41% for 2026 [5][6] - The company is projected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of around 7%-9% over the next three years [5] - The reasonable price range for the stock is estimated to be between 30.07 CNY and 33.82 CNY based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.6-1.8 [5]