福能股份：盈利能力修复，项目储备丰富

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.65 [1] - The sector rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is recovering, with a 8.38% YoY growth in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company has a rich project pipeline, with total construction-in-progress reaching RMB 2.228 billion, a 44.34% increase compared to the end of 2023 [3] - The company's gross margin improved by 3.25 percentage points to 21.99%, and the net margin increased by 1.81 percentage points to 20.33% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company reported RMB 10.485 billion in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, a 1.22% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.773 billion, up 8.38% YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 585 million, a 16.60% YoY decrease and an 11.66% QoQ decrease [3] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.08, 1.14, and 1.21, respectively, with a P/E ratio of 8.9x, 8.4x, and 7.9x [3] Operational Highlights - The company's power generation in Q3 2024 decreased by 3.51% YoY to 6.464 billion kWh, mainly due to a 20.19% decline in coal-fired power generation and a 1.34% decline in wind power generation [3] - The company's operating expenses ratio decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 6.94% in the first three quarters of 2024, with financial expenses ratio dropping by 0.71 percentage points to 3.66% [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 3.1%, reaching RMB 16.118 billion by 2026 [4] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 4.867 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.421 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.7% [4] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5.9%, reaching RMB 3.233 billion by 2026 [4] Industry and Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown strong performance over the past 12 months, with a 22% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The company's market capitalization is RMB 25.689 billion, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of RMB 196.61 million [2]