业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。2026 年初发电量与增速同比提升， 主要是因为上年同期基数较低。而且阶段性气温因素，1-2 月的冷暖波动较大带动采暖负 荷上升，提升电力需求的强度。电力生产由 2025 年初的低位逐步恢复到正常增速区间。 2026 年 1-2 月全社会用电量 16546 亿 ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月发用电开局良好 中东局势升 级欧亚气价上涨 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(26/3/16~26/3/20) 行 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 公用事业 ⚫ 电力： 1~2 月水电发电增速显著，第二产业拉动用电增长。2026 年 1-2 月发电量 15718 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.1%，其中火力发电 10539 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.3%；水 力发电 1560 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.8%。总体而言，1-2 月份规上工业火电由降转增， 水电增速加快，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速放缓。 ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 核电机制托底提前确立中国绿电电价拐点 ——中国电价上涨系列 II 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 专题研究 发电 增持 (维持) 环保工程及服务 增持 (维持) SAC No. S0570523050003 SFC No. BTC420 黄波 研究员 SAC No. S0570519090003 SFC No. BQR122 康琪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070105 kangqi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 行业走势图 王玮嘉 研究员 SAC No. S0570517050002 SFC No. BEB090 wangweijia@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2079 李雅琳 研究员 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | (当地币种) | 投资评级 | | 龙净环保 | 600388 CH | 28.96 | 买入 | | 福能股份 | 600483 CH | 15.47 | 买入 | | 华润电力 | 836 HK ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on the construction of a new energy system, emphasizing the integration of various energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power [3][6]. - It notes the recent slight decline in global gas prices due to geopolitical tensions affecting LNG supply, particularly from Qatar, while also mentioning the stable domestic supply in the U.S. [14][20]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas companies, reflecting a diversified approach to energy investments [12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting non-fossil energy sources and setting ambitious installation targets for nuclear, offshore wind, and pumped storage by 2030 [3][7]. - The plan aims to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the power system, optimize energy flow, and accelerate the development of smart grids and new energy storage solutions [6][8]. 2. Gas - The report discusses the impact of ongoing Middle Eastern tensions on global gas prices, with specific price data indicating fluctuations in various markets, including a 10.27% increase in U.S. Henry Hub spot prices [14][15]. - It highlights the current state of LNG prices in Northeast Asia, which have decreased by 13.33% recently, while also noting the overall supply constraints due to geopolitical factors [28][32]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the reporting period, while the gas sector lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions recent developments in energy safety and the approval of new energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia, indicating ongoing investments in energy infrastructure [39][42]. - It also highlights significant projects such as the completion of the first unit of the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant in Zhejiang, marking a milestone in China's nuclear energy development [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy sector, particularly in the context of the new energy system construction outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][7]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, promoting a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, with specific capacity targets set for 2025 and 2030 [3][8]. - Natural gas prices have shown slight declines due to easing panic premiums and geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with various price metrics reflecting this trend [16][22]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a comprehensive strategy for carbon emission control and the development of a new energy infrastructure, focusing on the integration of various energy sources [3][7]. - Specific targets for nuclear power, offshore wind, and pumped storage have been established, aiming for significant capacity increases by 2030 [8][9]. 2. Natural Gas - Ongoing geopolitical tensions have impacted LNG supply from Qatar, leading to fluctuations in global gas prices, with recent data showing a decrease in prices across various markets [16][22]. - The report highlights the importance of U.S. domestic supply and demand dynamics, noting that the U.S. has reached its LNG export capacity limit, which contributes to price stability [16][30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the utility, electricity, and environmental sectors have outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, while the gas sector has underperformed [39]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the approval of new energy projects and the establishment of safety protocols in energy production, emphasizing the importance of safety in the energy sector [42][45]. - The report mentions significant projects in renewable energy, including the construction of large-scale wind and solar facilities, which are expected to contribute to the energy transition [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides various investment recommendations for specific sectors and companies within the energy and environmental sectors. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, particularly affecting Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [13][22][36]. - The report outlines several investment opportunities across different energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [11][12][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual control system for carbon emissions, aiming for carbon peak and neutrality, and emphasizes the development of non-fossil energy sources [5][8][9]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to green energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [10]. 2. Gas Sector - The Middle East tensions have caused a rapid increase in gas prices, with significant weekly changes noted in various markets, such as a 116.35% increase in Northeast Asia LNG prices [13][22][36]. - The report highlights that the current geopolitical situation has led to a more abrupt price increase compared to previous cycles, with a potential for shorter duration [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Recommended companies include Datang Power A+H and JianTou Energy, particularly in regions with high computational demand [11][12]. - Hydropower: Companies like Guotou Power and Changjiang Power are favored due to expected improvements in financial metrics [12]. - Nuclear Power: Focus on China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, with a projected increase in approved units [12]. - Green Energy: Companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new energy market rules enhance project stability [12]. - Natural Gas: Companies like Kunlun Energy and China Gas are highlighted for their potential in a favorable pricing environment [12][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility and environmental sectors, particularly in electricity and natural gas [3][46]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a dual control system for carbon emissions, focusing on low-carbon development and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, with significant price fluctuations observed [15][24]. - The report identifies several investment opportunities across various energy sectors, including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and natural gas [13][14][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Implementation of Dual Control on Carbon Emissions - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a comprehensive approach to achieving carbon neutrality, emphasizing the need for a robust incentive mechanism and specific tasks related to energy, industry, and lifestyle [10][11][12]. - Key tasks include accelerating the transition to renewable energy, promoting low-carbon technologies, and enhancing resource management [12]. 2. Natural Gas: Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts on Prices - Natural gas prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and European prices experiencing significant increases [15][24]. - The report notes that the current supply constraints, particularly from Qatar, have led to a more pronounced price increase compared to previous cycles [42][44]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on LNG traders and unconventional gas resource companies that benefit from high price environments [44]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, electricity, and gas sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while the environmental sector has lagged [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the implementation of new standards for ecological industrial parks and competitive pricing mechanisms for renewable energy projects in Zhejiang [56]. - Notable company announcements include significant investments in waste-to-energy projects and renewable energy initiatives [57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the characteristics and rhythm of the green electricity market during the "policy year," highlighting the three phases of the 2021 green electricity market: pre-meeting, during the meeting, and post-meeting. It suggests that the green electricity sector will continue to be a focal point in the upcoming years, particularly in 2026, with a renewed focus on "green and low-carbon" initiatives [2][11] - The report identifies four key points to watch for the future of the green electricity sector, based on the experiences from 2021, including the impact of policy clarity, the role of leading companies, and the importance of financial reporting periods [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector has shown a significant increase, with a 20.09% rise over the past year, and a 10.52% increase since the beginning of the year [31] - The report notes that the green electricity sector has been influenced by policy expectations and market sentiment, with notable stock performances from companies like Longyuan Power and Xinneng Green Energy [11][37] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the market, particularly how policy announcements during the "Two Sessions" can catalyze market movements. It highlights the importance of policy implementation and the timing of financial disclosures in shaping market trends [11] - The report anticipates that the green electricity sector will be a major theme in 2026, driven by technological advancements and policy support, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality goals [11] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][14][15] - It also highlights the potential of renewable energy companies, particularly Longyuan Power and Xinneng Green Energy, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [11][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [5][8]. Core Insights - The upcoming deliberation of the Ecological Environment Code is expected to enhance the legal framework for pollution prevention, ecological protection, and green low-carbon development [15]. - The integration of computing power and electricity is highlighted as a significant trend, with public utilities being well-positioned to leverage AI and other new productivity developments [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the renewable energy sector and comprehensive energy management in the context of carbon neutrality [20]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.09%, while the public utility index rose by 4.54% and the environmental index by 7.73% [14][22]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 7.57%, while renewable energy generation saw a rise of 7.33% [23]. Key Company Recommendations Public Utilities - Recommended companies include: - Huadian International (华电国际) and Shanghai Electric (上海电力) for coal-fired power [20]. - Longyuan Power (龙源电力) and Three Gorges Energy (三峡能源) for renewable energy [20]. - China Nuclear Power (中国核电) and China General Nuclear Power (中国广核) for nuclear power [20]. - Changjiang Power (长江电力) for hydropower [20]. - Jiufeng Energy (九丰能源) for gas [20]. - Xizi Clean Energy (西子洁能) for clean energy equipment manufacturing [20]. Environmental Protection - Recommended companies include: - Everbright Environment (光大环境) and Shanghai Industrial Holdings (上海实业控股) for water and waste incineration [21]. - Juguang Technology (聚光科技) and Wanyi Technology (皖仪科技) for scientific instruments [21]. - Shangaohuaneng (山高环能) for waste oil recycling [21]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [21]. - The domestic scientific instrument market is projected to have substantial room for domestic substitution, with a market size exceeding 90 billion USD [21]. Important Events - The report highlights the upcoming National People's Congress, where multiple legal drafts, including the Ecological Environment Code, will be reviewed [15]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to enhance investment in computing power and promote the synergy between computing and electricity [16]. Industry Data Overview - The report provides insights into the electricity generation and consumption trends, indicating a year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption of 5.0% for 2025 [52]. - The total installed capacity of electricity generation reached 3.89 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Chinese AI models in terms of cost, with output prices significantly lower than those of mainstream American models, providing a nearly 7-fold price advantage [2]. - The ongoing "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to enhance the integration of clean energy and intelligent computing, further solidifying the cost advantages of Chinese models in the global market [3]. - Several power operators are actively developing "computing and electricity" collaborative businesses, aiming to create new growth avenues through investments in data centers and related infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent rise of Chinese open-source AI models, which have surpassed global usage metrics, indicating a strong domestic capability in AI technology [1]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese AI models are achieving comparable performance to international leaders at a fraction of the cost, with prices around 10-20 RMB per million tokens, compared to over 10 USD for U.S. models [2]. Market Trends - The report notes that the integration of clean energy and computing power is being accelerated by national policies, which are expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese models in the global market [3]. Company Developments - Key players in the power sector, such as JinKai New Energy and Longyuan Power, are making significant investments in data centers and distributed computing projects, positioning themselves to benefit from the "computing and electricity" synergy [4][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on power operators that are engaged in "computing and electricity" initiatives and have favorable valuations, recommending specific companies such as Funiu Co., Gansu Energy, and JinKai New Energy for investment consideration [4].